HIR: They aren't IZBM but they sure are cheap!

On a recent perusal of the nation bonds, I found out that there's a lot of potential upside to these stocks (some were valued at T$1.49- IPO pricing as of yesterday). A nation bond, as I beleive I understood it, is a "country stock" that represents terrorist acts, revolution or other general upheaval and shenanigans for that country. There are many less-than-stable countries listed under this category and while I've said that low prices mean low liklihood, a case could be made for grabbing a lot of these cheap, if only to collect "interest" on your cash if others buy as well. Who knows- maybe even news will develop. [DISCLOSURE - I own two nation bonds] Given my now-known identity, I will disclose certain specifics of the stocks that I cover on HIRs from this point on. It will usually be quantity of covered stocks. For example, if I do a five-stock list, I will disclose how many of the five I own, but not which ones. You have to do your own research. Have a great day, H

The Secret is out: Hoodlumman is J.D.

Our gracious host blew my cover on a blog the other day. The lesson here is don't tell anyone anything. I wanted anonymity so I could write my blogs and have them read more objectively. So much for that now. That being said, about half of the stocks I wrote positively about I did own, but not all. After my last article, I should say that I do still own equity stocks- just not a portfolio of about 25 any more. Everyone guns for the top of the leader board. I did- I'm not as interested anymore. Gabriel C. is approaching three-times the second place runner (me) right now and every day that gets bigger. So now, everyone is playing for second. The highest movers are those that get in on the IPOs. I did my share of trying to bring about change of how IPOs work, even getting them done by announcement with a three hour warning. The results- release on a weekend night, when basically everyone was gone except Gabriel and Darius (nice job guys, get a social life! ;) ) [DISCLAIMER: I jest with you both, I know I got into a nice exchange with Gabe on the TX blog one day- the TX is nothing more than a tertiary "hobby." I'd like to think that in real life, we could all go out for beers.] Back to the point- when the IPO system gets automated, the market should stablize some, in theory. Of course, nothing has really done that yet, so it may remain as volatile as ever. The essentials will never change- buy low(er), sell high(er). And again, Satori, let me blow my own covers from here on out. Thanks! H

HIR: STOP INVESTING IN EQUITY STOCKS! [If you lack a diversified portfolio]

With the introduction of the presidential election strike stocks, investing in anything else is pointless, if you lack large amounts of free capital or a diversified portfolio. Strike stocks are the only stock type that will pay a premium in cash upon an event happening. Until last night's IPOs, no event was certain. Now there is a certain event that will pay on November 4th. Here is what you do: -You either buy equal shares of KERY and BUSH, wait for the election, get paid. Buying both guarantees you'll make money. -Or buy one if it becomes more clear there will be a distinct winner. It looks like these stocks might act as a nice predictor of the election outcome. Considering the point is to make T$ and not be partisan, that should be the case with BUSH and KERY. Either way REGARDLESS OF HOW MANY SHARES YOU BUY, AS LONG AS YOU BUY THEM UNDER (a combined) T$200 A SHARE, YOU WILL MAKE A PROFIT. Guaranteed. Buying shares of BUSH or KERY on Nov. 2nd at T$189 per share will earn you a profit, if that candidate is elected. Do not sell on the dips. Buy on the dips. These stocks should never dip. If these stocks do not surpass IZBM and cause massive selloffs of all equity and bond stocks, I will be amazed. Bye bye equity stocks, I'll see you on November 5th, 2004! [DISCLOSURE - I never fully divested my portfolio of equity stocks, but it cost me a lot more to get the volume of shares I own of BUSH and KERY so I had to sell off quite a bit of equities. I own both BUSH and KERY.] Happy trading, H

HIR: ATPE – Strike Stock “Catch-all”

There was great anticipation for strike stocks. These are the stocks that will actually pay out pending unfortunate news. Lots of TX traders liquidated equity stocks for cash. The buzz has died down a bit but the emergence of ATPE – [Major Terrorist Attack in the US Prior to Presidential Elections] has some encompassing qualities. Let’s check and see what equity stocks fall under this strike stock description: ASPC, BBUS, BRDG, CAMS, CHSB, CPOI, DMWT, DRTY, DSNY, FIRE, FLOA, HIJK, HYDR, LASB, LVBM, MAUL, NBAT, NGAS, NYSB, PTBM, SFSB, SPAT, TNUK, UBIO, USPA, WATR. That’s 26 stocks that could possibly be covered by ATPE. That’s 21% of all equity stocks – instant diversification. Equity stocks won’t expire on a given date. But if any of the aforementioned events occur in the U.S. and are proven to be terror related, it will fall under ATPE’s wording. IMHO, H

HIR: “For the Love of the TX, De-list Me Already!”

Top 10 Stocks That Will Win the Lottery… Three Weeks in a Row Calculate the odds of someone winning a pick-six lotto three weeks in a row and you’ll realize how facetious that subtitle was. Behold! Ten stocks that don’t have a chance in hell! – in alphabetical order: 1.) AICB – [America Accidentally Launches ICBM at Russia] Let’s see… never happened during 40 years of the Cold War, how about when we’re capitalist allies having to deal with terrorists in the war on terror? I don’t think so. Also include RICB – [Russia Accidentally Launches ICBM at America]. 2.) AMTG – [American Election Found to be Tampered With by Government] I’ve commented on this before. Why attempt this? It isn’t even feasible given the shear number of voting locations. 3.) CMTR – [Catastrophic Meteor Strikes Earth] First the dinosaurs, then us? Tell ya what, this stock just might pay off, but it’ll be long after we’ve colonized the 3rd and 7th regions of the Xandan region in the M65 Galaxy. Thank goodness we discovered sub-linear light transfer in time! 4.) DSUN – [Dissolution of the United Nations] Dissolve this honest, ethical, force-to-be-reckoned-with organization of goodness and justice? Heh, while it is a good idea, it will never happen. How else will Syria and the Sudan head human rights panels? 5.) HATS – [Hawaii Badly Damaged By A Tsunami (Tidal Wave)] Much more likely than a meteor but still less likely to occur in any of our lifetimes. 6.) OBLS – [Osama Bin Laden Surrenders to Coalition Forces] Surrender? I think going down shooting or going down with a bomb strapped to him is more Osama’s style. Either way is fine with me, but it won’t be surrender. 7.) QASS – [Al Qaeda Succeeds in Assassinating Top Level US Officials] Some might disagree with this pick, but I seriously doubt any US officials are going to put themselves in any position to get taken out by Al Qaeda. 8.) SEAR – [Seattle Devastated by an Eruption of Mt. Rainier] Everyone’s favorite volcanic prediction! Maybe if a meteor hit the earth hard enough, it’d squeeze the magma right up the lava tubes!! 9.) SDAM – [Saddam Hussein Killed in U.S Custody] Handover is about to take place. He will no longer be in US Custody. 10.) SECD – [Oil Producing States (Western States) Secede from United States Union] So Texas, California and Alaska are going to secede? Why? Because they have oil? Who will let them? Everyone else? Good grief, this is an absurd scenario. We are the USA – United States of America… not the United Except for Oil Producing States of America. Although UEOPSA sounds like a funny animal and stuff… Behold the long shots! Or never shots, as it may be. This weeks’ winning numbers will be 8, 13, 27, 38, 39 and 24 will be the powerball. Good luck! -H

HIR: The Beginner’s Guide to the TX

First off, I’d like to apologize to any investors who purchased SAUD on Friday or over the weekend. Saudi Arabia has become a shit-storm (for lack of a more accurate noun) as of lately and things are not improving. SAUD was the lone stock that dealt with the country until AQSA debuted. I then shifted my funds to AQSA, as it better described the current situation. As of the writing, SAUD is rebounding nicely. If you haven’t noticed, I like numbered lists. I’ll continue this trend for this guide and hope that my cohorts on other blogs and on the TX will link this article, if they deem it worthy and a good read. 1.) DIVERSIFY – This is rule #1. If you don’t follow any other rules, follow this one. As more and more users open accounts at the TX, the market gets more and more stable. Even that being the case, large investors that are atop the leader board can cause unstable swings in the index if they decide to free up cash for whatever reason. If you are not diversified, you will get burned if you have all your eggs in one basket, as the saying goes. Investing T$1,000,000 in one or two stocks is the quickest way for your account to be worth T$689,191 on day two. 2.) FOLLOW THE MONEY – This is entirely true in real markets, as well. If a stock is worth T$2.89, there’s a reason it’s worth T$2.89- no one else is investing in it. The high dollar stocks have a larger number of investors in them- this is even more true as a stock value increases. Granted, you can’t buy as much stock for higher prices but you’re buying a more stable stock and one that people deem feasible. 3.) BUY ON THE DIPS – Dips are becoming fairly frequent these days. I think with the emergence of strike stocks, the market has stabilized and money is flowing back into equity stocks and a little in the strike stocks. Today, Satori closed a test account and sold off quite a bit of stock. This caused minor panic but in the end, it just allowed more money to flow into the best stocks at a lower price. 4.) GET IN ON IPOS EARLY – This is obvious. Right now, it’s a first come, first serve IPO system. Satori has read some of the constructive criticism and looks like he will attempt to automate the IPO system. If introduced, this will be the single best feature to hit the TX since its inception. 5.) WATCH/READ THE NEWS – This is what drives stocks- news headlines and internet research/articles. Granted, there are a few stocks that are “artificially high.” I’ve covered this before. But most quality stocks are based on sound current events and have a high likelihood of happening. Fortunately NONE of the TX events have happened since it’s opening early this year. Let’s hope this trend continues! Happy trading! -H

HIR: Friday's Stock to Watch [SAUD]

All is not well in Saudi Arabia. Also, WiredCrusader has compiled a series of events (look under the heading More News on the Saudi Jihad Threat.) Watch SAUD over the weekend. At T$7.62 (as of this writing), it's a bargain compared to other "probability" stocks. H :: For a great TX brainstorming exchange, check out Glathannus's Blog.

My Initial Take on Strike Stocks

Strike stocks debuted yesterday- Bombings at the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. The thought of either never really crossed my mind- I guess they're as good a target for terrorists as anything. I don't expect either to occur and if one did, I would be racing to invest in TRCL- the two would have to be related. The only ones who made money on them were the ones who got there first. This pump and dump scheme doesn't keep with the spirit of the TX. Now it's just a "who can be first to buy" contest. There might be some reform to how IPOs are offered. Maybe the announcement that there will be a new IPO and it come out a certain time in the AM or PM. Or IPOs can be requested by any members for a certain time period and the TX engine can distribute everyone their requested shares at once, giving everyone the corresponding price on the demand curve as the number of shares requested as a whole. This would eliminate the "first come, first rich" scheme that has evolved. It's unknown how many new users get their accounts clobbered by this tactic and end up quitting or opening a new account to start anew. The volitility of the TX has probably rendered numberous accounts abandoned and/or crippled to the point of the user showing no interest or opening up a new account with a new email address. This volatility keeps turnover high and stocks artificially propped by vacated accounts that will hold shares until they are deleted... In my opinion. Back on topic, a lot of money was freed up for strike stocks and there remains a large deal of money in cash that has not been reinvested. Some stocks have good entry prices now, as it appears new strike stocks may be slower to emerge than equity IPOs. Also, there still remains to be seen which equity stocks will be converted to strike stocks. The engine is running smooth and the introduction was a success. Now all I need to see some strike stocks that I like. H

HIR: Top 5 Legitimate “Value” Stocks

What is Legitimate “Value” Stock? [Always] In my opinion, these stocks are stocks that have a very high probability of occurring. There are many stocks listed that have almost no chance of happening. I might cover some of these later but they are obvious to the informed news watcher. The top five with my views on each: 1.) IZBM [Israeli suicide bombing] – For many years, the focus of unrest in the Middle East has been the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I won’t get into the politics of it, as this hasn’t been of interest to me anymore recently. However, as anyone that hasn’t been in a shell their entire life knows, the technique used by the Palestinians to show their displeasure with the situation there is to strap bombs onto willing volunteers and hit civilian targets. This happens quite often and is reflected so on the TX by having the highest value of any security. Once made a strike stock, this stock should trade at its strike price until the strike date gets close. Any price under the strike price is a strong buy. 2.) IRGD [Iraqi government dissolves due to political unrest] – The interim and, in the future, possibly elected government is going to have its hands full. With so many factions, militias and lack of support from neighboring states, a stable Iraqi government will take a long time and require our presence. If we remove large amounts of troops, (which we eventually will), this might even invite more instability. The likelihood of a government collapse, in my opinion is very high. 3.) OLYM [Bombing/assassination at the Olympics] – This has actually happened before - Munich, 1972. Israel was the target then. The target(s) now could be any western country or the games themselves. How secure can an event be that attracts people from almost every country on the globe? Athens must almost secure the impossible. They have their hands full. 4.) BINL [Osama bin Laden captured/killed] – Plenty of people believe that since he hasn’t been caught by now, he won’t be. I don’t necessarily believe that is true at all. With (relative) stability in Afghanistan and limited cooperation with Pakistan, I have faith in our ever-searching armed forces and intelligence efforts in the region to narrow the search and yield his location. In my opinion, he probably won’t be taken alive. 5.) TWST [Twister destroys city in American Mid-west] – This is the one weather/nature stock that I really like. In May 2004, 200+ twisters touched down in the mid-west and other locations, killing 13 people. With the steamy summer ahead of us, tornado alley could be as active as ever. This is not an ‘if’ stock but a ‘when’ stock. Anticipating the return of the bulls, H

Black Tuesday

With the anticipation of strike stocks, the market is down sharply this morning. Some of the drop may be absorbed by the emergence of bulls today. Without a real-time index ticker, the deepest dip in the exchange may never be known. However, it is apparent that the leader board members do dictate the market at this point and until the TX gains more popularity and investors, volatility will reign supreme. In better news, no TX investors have been reported jumping out of high-rise windows. Stay tuned, H

HIR: (Hoodlumman’s Insider Report): Top 5 Artificially High Stocks

What is an Artificially High Stock? [Always] In my opinion, AHS’s are stocks that, probably quite self-explanatory, are artificially high. There could be several reasons for this. Here are a few: 1.) Collusion between members to drive a stock up, hoping to spark a rally so their portfolios can sell high. 2.) The opening of other accounts for the sole purpose of driving a stock up and selling. This is illegal and against the user agreement. How difficult it is for Satori to find is another story. 3.) The dumping of all stocks by a trader, followed by 100% investing in one or two stocks using the demand curve’s modeling to run the price up. In a best case scenario, others may jump on the bandwagon, offering the initial pumper to sell at a slight or large profit. If Satori eventually closes inactive accounts (which he should after 90 days or so) I expect many stocks to eventually fall. Here are the top five with some reasoning as to why: 1.) IQCW [Iraq falls into civil war] - If you look on the IQCW chart you’ll see a huge spike almost three months ago. On the same day, BINL took a massive fall. By luck, I noticed that the TX Leader Board front-runner, Gabriel C., asset values went through the roof – in excess of T$120MM. The long term strategy of the move didn’t pay off, as other holders of IQCW have sold on the spike and, I suspect, Gabriel C. has, too. Also note that BINL has worked it’s way up nicely, as the chances of this stock actually coming to fruition remains high. 2.) FLOA [Terror attack in Southern Florida] – This is an odd stock, based on Satori’s own intelligence and newsgathering. Will a terror attack in Northern Florida not count? Regardless, it’s brand new and almost T$30. I can think of huge numbers of better targets, and given the current prices of other “location” stocks, this one is destined to sell-off. 3.) EQSC [Major earthquake hits S. California] – Until the specifics of “major earthquake" are released (is 5.0 a major? 6.0? 6.5+?), this stock is overvalued. Why isn’t N. California just as high? What will be the earthquake stocks’ strike features? 4.) SEAR [Seattle devastated by eruption of Mt. Rainier] – Someone or some people pumped this stock up one day in early May and its non-movement shows only a few people hold a massive amount of this stock. Inactive account closing should bring this down to where it needs to be- either de-listed or below T$3.00 per share. 5.) AMTG [American Election found to be tampered with by government] – Conspiracy theories aside, only the voting population can screw up a vote. Any corruption would be on a local level. Anything else would signal the permanent downfall of a political party. How feasible or successful would this be if tried? All, in my opinion, -H

My insights regarding the TX...

The TX is the TerrorXchange. I mentioned it in my previous post. There's been chatter of blogs to voice individuals thoughts and insights regarding their opinions, holdings or miscellaneous ideas. I've decided to go this route, too. Welcome to all who are reading from the TX. A little about my TX experience: I began the TX months ago- I want to say March, but I don't know for sure. I took my initial 1.1MM and invested it in "sure things." BINL and IZBM, for examples. They rocketed. At that point I got a revelation. This predated the notes section or Satori's blog, so I emailed him with an IPO. That's when I catapaulted up. As it stands now, my IPO is one of the top 10 stocks on the TX in value. I won't say which one, mainly b/c I'm a market leader- possibly correctly deemed a market "maker" and I don't want to reveal what I hold- mainly as a defense against the less scrupulous traders and traders that don't buy and sell based on world news. I'm a huge force with millions invested and always 3-5 million in cash ready to invest in the next best IPO or those gems that are about to emerge: strike stocks. I welcome all TX members and outsiders comments. -H P.S. For what it's worth, I hope one day- all terror stocks are delisted and all peace stocks pay out. The world would be a much better place if the TX had no reason to exist.

Inaugural Entry

I'm not sure what I'll put on this thing or how often I'll put anything or if it will even be read-worthy. I opened an account here so I could comment on the intriguing development that is the TerrorXchange. That is probably where you'll find most of my comments until something can develop here. -H