Today's graph idea comes straight off CNN's front page: George Bush's job aproval is down. I know it breaks their little heart to tell you that, but they have to report the news.
Here is a look at his job approval rating via CNN:
Now at surface level: Ouch. It seems that Katrina, Rita and Iraq haven't done George any favors. To be sure the post 9-11 days are gone but what does the country think of George, not the job he's doing, just him.From Zogby:
From Fox News:
From Gallup polling:
From Pew Polling:
And from ABC and the Washington Post:
Everywhere you look, GW's taking a beating. SO, I guess I need to get ready for the crush of "Blue State" victories in the House and Senate, right? I guess I need to get used to the idea of hearing "Madame President", right?Well, not so fast...
Let's compare what GW's numbers tell us compared to the "Teflon President", Former President Bill Clinton.
Here is a graph of Bill's job approval:
Here is a graph of Bill's personal favorability:
After comparing the two Presidents, you could easily sit back and say " Rob, Clinton had a job approval rating that carried a mean of about 62, George Bush is all over the place." You'd be right.You could also say , "Rob, look at Clinton's favorability. The only crossover he had was during the Lewinsky scandal. He was back up by the time the election came around." Once again you would be right.
The reason I don't feel that the "Blue state" turn around that the news seems to think that the "job approval rating" reflects is automatic is based on 2 things.
1st. Personalities only seem to matter in their respective races. Clinton climbed back to a "favorable status" after the scandal, but he wasn't running. His charisma was at a total loss in energizing the nation with his former VP, Al Gore. Likewise, look at Bush's ratings during the 2004 election. They were hardly stellar, yet the Republicans won a pretty strong popular vote. It shows that to some degree the "personal" poll seems to reflect on only that person.
2nd. The biggest difference between the 2 Presidents doesn't lie with what the numbers are in terms of "approval" or "disapproval." The biggest difference is in the "don't know/ don't care" demographic. The 2000 election and the progressivly adversarial nature of politics since then have polarized America. People may not be truly "active" but the lack of interest in political settings is a thing of the past.
Considering the failures that polling had in the last 2 elections, both forecasting and exit, it may be safe to assume that while personal approval ratings and favorability may be a interesting take on the public view of the administration they may not be the tools they are touted to be in predicting where the chips will fall on election day. The disconnect between Presidental personality and party loyality seems to be pronounced enough that very little of it carries over.
Tomorrow, I'll look at the election and the distribution of population and electorial votes through the joy of "data weighted map projection."
